Macro Topics Note 27 April 2026

27 April 2026
Drafting the Markets
Macro Topics Note

An assassination attempt during the White House correspondents’ dinner heightens concerns about political violence and presidential security, underscoring rising ideological extremism in the US alongside a brief moment of bipartisan condemnation of political violence.

Peace talks between the US and Iran continue to stall, keeping oil markets tight as supply disruptions persist and military presence in the region grows. With key issues unresolved, analysts foresee further rises in oil prices amid ongoing losses of up to 13 Mn bpd.

Nickel prices are rising due to sulphur supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Indonesia’s reduced mining quotas, sharply increasing production costs and tightening global supply.

The Middle East crisis has removed a significant share of global LNG supply, reversing expectations of a near-term glut and pushing markets back into prolonged tightness. If disruptions persist, high prices and fuel switching could permanently reduce gas demand, especially in Asia.

Container freight rates remain under pressure from weak demand despite Hormuz-related disruptions, with declines on Asia–Europe routes offset by strength in transatlantic lanes. Carriers are relying on capacity management and surcharges, while dozens of vessels remain trapped or delayed in the Middle East.

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