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WHO WE ARE

We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 30 september 2019

 

Weathering the storm as we stare at Archimedes’ dollar smile

Why was no one taking the “risk free” profit?

Quantitative tightening, together with a contraction of credit in China and trade war-driven uncertainties in the past year-and-a-half, have caused business sentiment and growth projections to weaken. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has been very volatile recently, a lot more than usual. At the same time, global PMI has been falling, boosting demand for safe haven commodities, including US Treasuries, with global yields suffering. According to the USD smile theory, the US Dollar rises when uncertainty is high and the appetite for risk falls.

Uncertainties brought about by the trade war over recent months have put downward pressure on global GDP growth. However, support in the medium term can come from the global central banks that have switched from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing again, and rate cuts usually move with PMI over time. In addition, since the beginning of 2019, China has eased its credit condition and incentivised investments, with China's outstanding total social financing up 10.9 per cent year-over-year at the end of June.  

The repo market spiked well above unsecured lending rates last week, even for US Treasuries in an environment with falling or negative interest rates. What happened last week with the financial system running out of cash revealed the high risk of a financial meltdown. The questions raised were: are US Treasuries really “risk free” given they are the most rehypothecated asset in the financial markets, and should the banks raise more equity capital? The US Treasuries market is like a game of musical chairs with not enough chairs for everyone once the music stops.





The recent turmoil in the repo market is a clear signal of a shortage in USD, which could aggravate the economic slowdown. The shortage of USD also caused Bitcoin to plunge in value, as the appetite for risk averse and less volatile assets surge. With a stronger USD, countries exposed to USD-denominated debt will be hit the hardest. However, the spike coincided with a time when many companies where submitting their quarterly federal tax payments and USD 78 Bn of treasury notes were settled.

Since mid-last week, the USD has softened but remained strong. Gold also dropped together with oil prices as supply side risk weakens. Attacks on Saudi and trade tensions drove the crude oil roller-coaster last week, while also providing support to tanker rates. Now, the anticipated regular Q4 tanker rate spike, geopolitical tensions, the trade war and IMO 2020 preparations will all make for a very interesting Q4...we can’t wait.

Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

Click here for our terms of business

Our locations


  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info

    LONDON

    Dry Cargo LNG Research S & P Tankers Newbuilding Finance Valuations


    Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info


  • 72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info

    SINGAPORE

    Dry Cargo S & P Tankers


    72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info


  • Level 8
    420 St Kilda Road
    Melbourne
    VIC 3004
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info

    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Level 8
    420 St Kilda Road
    Melbourne
    VIC 3004
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info


  • 8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info

    PERTH

    Dry Cargo


    8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info


  • Unit No.217, 2nd Floor, DLF Tower A,
    Jasola District centre
    New Delhi 110025, India


    T +91 11 41604416

    View full office info

    NEW DELHI

    Dry Cargo


    Unit No.217, 2nd Floor, DLF Tower A,
    Jasola District centre
    New Delhi 110025, India


    T +91 11 41604416

    View full office info


  • 1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info

    SYDNEY

    Dry Cargo


    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info


  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info

    SEOUL

    LNG Newbuilding S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info


  • 6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info

    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info

    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • Av. Jorge Basadre 356,
    San Idro, Lima
    Peru

    T +51 1777 8944

    View full office info

    LIMA

    Dry Cargo


    Av. Jorge Basadre 356,
    San Idro, Lima
    Peru

    T +51 1777 8944

    View full office info


  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info


  • Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info

    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info