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We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 20 September 2021

Onto the next challenge!

Federal Reserve officials are expected to lay bare how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rates rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting on Wednesday, with the market on alert for a faster pace of tightening.

The scaling back could be completed as early as mid-2022, clearing the way for the Fed to lift interest rates from near-zero any time after that. The consensus among economists polled by Reuters is for rates to remain near zero until 2023,, but more than one-quarter of respondents in the September survey forecast the Fed raising rates next year.

Furthermore, several economists have been downgrading their gross domestic product estimates for the current quarter, citing weak motor vehicle sales as inventory shortages persist, and a recent surge of Covid-19 infections fueled by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, although data released last Thursday showed US retail sales unexpectedly increased in August.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the volume of ECB bond purchases is becoming "less important" as the economic outlook improves and the money-printing scheme becomes a tool for guiding rate expectations, board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday.

The ECB cut the pace of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme this month and is expected to end it in March. It is also running a smaller, older Asset Purchase Programme, which it plans to end shortly before raising interest rates. Still, market expectations are of an increase in APP from April 2022 to make up for the missing PEPP volumes.

Schnabel said the ECB was happy to see upside changes to inflation after it had undershot its 2 per cent target for so long. The ECB expects inflation to come in at 2.2 per cent this year before easing back to 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023.

Meanwhile, prices in the eurozone rose by 3 per cent m-o-m in August, pushed up by energy costs but also by industrial goods made more expensive by supply bottlenecks.

However, for energy prices, the price increase is expected to be much higher as gas prices are hitting repeated highs as Europe is heading into winter with low stocks. This follows lower supplies from Russia and domestic sources as gasfield operators undertake maintenance delayed from last year. LNG supplies, which come via tankers, have also tightened globally because of strong demand in Asia and Latin America, creating a bidding war for cargoes.

The rise in prices has serious knock-on effects not just for consumers, but also for the industry as a whole. In the UK, energy companies could be offered emergency state-backed loans to take on unprofitable customers from failing smaller suppliers, as ministers struggle to contain the crisis. Out of 55 companies supplying the market, only 10 could be left standing by Christmas according to a statement by Kwasi Kwarteng, business and energy secretary.

In other news, Evergrande - China’s largest property developer – is facing a liquidity crisis. What makes this newsworthy is that, in China, the real estate sector is estimated to account for up to a quarter of GDP. Global equity markets led by Asian real estate and the basic material sector have already started to show signs of concern.

Commodities other than oil, gas and coal could be entering choppy waters in the last quarter mostly because the Chinese property sector accounts for a fifth of all global and steel supply, and an estimated 5 to 20 per cent of global commodity supplies.

So far, the hardest hit was iron ore, trading at USD 100/T on Friday from the record high USD 230/T last May. Behind such spectacular a downfall is not just a cooling real estate market, but also government production curbs are playing an important role in this market’s cool-off.

Ironically enough, the domestic price of coking coal, the other key ingredient to make steel, was up by 60 per cent on the month at USD 577/T last Friday as Covid-related supply disruptions have hit imports from Mongolia, and Australian coal is banned from China.


Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Carbon

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact David Oakley

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact David Oakley

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

Click here for our terms of business

Our locations


  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info

    LONDON

    Carbon Dry Cargo Finance LNG Newbuilding Research S & P Tankers Valuations


    Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info


  • 72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info

    SINGAPORE

    Dry Cargo LNG S & P Tankers


    72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info


  • Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info

    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info


  • 8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info

    PERTH

    Dry Cargo


    8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info


  • 1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info

    SYDNEY

    Dry Cargo


    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info


  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info

    SEOUL

    LNG Newbuilding S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info


  • 6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info

    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info

    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

    View full office info

    LIMA

    Containers Dry Cargo


    Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

    View full office info


  • Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


    View full office info

    SHANGHAI

    Dry Cargo


    Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


    View full office info


  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info


  • Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

    View full office info

    BUENOS AIRES

    Dry Cargo


    Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

    View full office info


  • Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info

    RIO GRANDE

    Dry Cargo


    Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info


  • Address to be reconfirmed

    View full office info

    ROTTERDAM

    Dry Cargo


    Address to be reconfirmed

    View full office info


  • Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info

    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info