We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.
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Japan: The country of the ageing sun
Japan’s rapidly ageing population and resultant shrinking workforce has been having a huge impact on the country’s economy, which contracted by 0.2 per cent in 2018 Q1 over the previous quarter, causing further concern for the future performance of the nation. This has been the first quarter to report negative results after eight consecutive quarters of growth, the longest period of uninterrupted growth for Japan since 1989. More interestingly, this has been the only major economy shrinking in 2018 Q1. Japan also had the second-weakest performance in 2017, among other major economies, just after Italy. Despite “Abenomics”, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-growth policies introduced in 2013 to counter Japan’s long-term stagnation, expectations for this year are rather low. In contrast to Italy, where record high unemployment and the weak labour market have been the main reasons to blame for the country’s economic stagnation, Japan has the lowest levels of unemployment among the G7. The main reason why Japan is not capable of maintaining the growth rates experienced in other advanced economies is due to its own demographics.
The IMF has already warned that “a rapidly ageing population and shrinking labour force are hampering growth”, in its latest country’s report. The IMF also calculated that “the impact of ageing could potentially drag down Japan’s average annual GDP growth by 1 percentage point over the next three decades”.
Japan’s population became smaller than what it used to be in 2000, while in the same period the US population increased by 16 per cent. Japan’s population has been declining since 2010, by about 1.3 Mn people so far. By 2065, based on UN expectations, Japan’s population is set to fall further by 28 Mn people, a 22 per cent drop, while the population in advanced economies will rise by 3 per cent. Since 2000, Japanese people of working age shrank by 13 per cent, while the US experienced an increase of a similar proportion. By 2040, every third person in Japan will be over 65 years old. The shrinking and ageing population will translate into a smaller domestic market with less demand for goods and services. The construction of new houses has dropped quickly. The number of corporations decreased by around a third since 2006. Even if the productivity growth remains flat, the GDP output would steadily decline year by year, assuming all other factors remained similar.
Referring to GDP growth rate per person over the past 20 years, Japan expanded at rates similar to those experienced in countries like France and Canada. In terms of GDP growth rate per person of working age, Japan actually comes second among the G7 countries, only after Germany. Japan’s annual GDP per person of working age is set to expand faster than 2 per cent. But as many older people work in Japan, this measure is biased upwards for countries with an ageing population. Considering Japan’s shrinking labour force, its should expect more negative growth in future mainly due to the demographic trends, even if the GDP per person of working age appears to perform strongly.
Affinity Research LLP
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
Contact: David Oakley
[email protected]
+61 2 9937 8806
Finance
Finance
Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.
Contact: Andrew Finn
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0114
LNG
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Mark Williams
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0185
S & P
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Toby English
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0123
Tankers
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
Contact: David Oakley
[email protected]
+61 2 9937 8806
Finance
Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.
Contact: Andrew Finn
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0114
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Mark Williams
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0185
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Toby English
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0123
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
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Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
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LONDON
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
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72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
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SINGAPORE
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
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Level 8
420 St Kilda Road
Melbourne
VIC 3004
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
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MELBOURNE
Level 8
420 St Kilda Road
Melbourne
VIC 3004
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
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8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
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PERTH
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
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1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
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SYDNEY
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
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#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
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SEOUL
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
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601 Pacific House
20 Queen's Road Central
Central, Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
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HONG KONG
601 Pacific House
20 Queen's Road Central
Central, Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
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1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
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HOUSTON
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
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Marco Polo Parkside Building 1005,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
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BEIJING
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1005,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
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Basadre 607,
Office 208, Lima, Peru
T +511 712 3772
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LIMA
Basadre 607,
Office 208, Lima, Peru
T +511 712 3772
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Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
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SANTIAGO
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
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Inkognitogata 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
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OSLO
Inkognitogata 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
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