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Affinity Policy Comment 4 November 2024

The Final Countdown

US election week is here and, although Trump has gained momentum over the past month, recent polling data suggests that the results remain uncertain. Polymarket now shows a narrowing of Trump's lead, while PredictIt even favours Harris. In late October, polling from Des Moines Register had Harris leading in Iowa, a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. However, early November data from Emerson places Trump 10 points ahead in Iowa, highlighting the volatility of polls. In the swing states, Harris has regained slight leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, which are crucial for her, while Trump has extended his lead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

The outcome will probably hinge on the northern states - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Harris wins all three, she will secure victory. For Trump, winning his strongest states - Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina - and any one of the three northern states would ensure his victory. Nevada, though a swing state, may play a less significant role due to its smaller delegate count.

Turnout for early voting has been high so far, with 76 Mn ballots already cast, according to Bloomberg, approximately 48 per cent of the 2020 total vote. Historically, high turnout has benefited Democrats, who also tend to lead in early voting. According to NBC, registered Democrats make up the largest share of early voters this year, but it remains unclear how this will affect overall turnout. Early voting has increased steadily, especially in 2020 during pandemic restrictions.

Congressional races, particularly in the House of Representatives, are also in focus. Prediction markets see the House race as almost evenly split, which could impact future fiscal policy significantly. The majority party can appoint the Speaker, who controls which bills the House sends to the Senate. If Republicans lose their narrow House majority, Trump’s ability to enact tax cuts could be constrained, even if he wins the presidency. Even as a “lame duck”, Trump could impose new tariffs via executive orders.

If Trump does not gain a clear early lead, there’s a high chance that final results won’t be available by the morning of 6 November in Europe. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which don’t allow pre-counting of early votes, may be among the last to report their results - Pennsylvania wasn’t called until Friday in 2020. Michigan’s result was also delayed until midnight on 6-7 November European time in 2020, and Trump needs at least one of these three states to confirm a win. Final House results in 2020 were not declared until Thursday, and control of the Senate was only finalised in January 2021 after Democrats’ unexpected wins in Georgia run-offs. This year, Republicans are favoured to take control of the Senate.

Normally, elections have relatively little impact on financial markets as a change in political power only gradually and unpredictably affects economic policy. However, in the current situation with already very unsustainable public finances in the US, markets are sensitive to the perception that a Republican president with a majority in both chambers of Congress, a "clean sweep“, would further loosen fiscal policy, even though it is unclear if that in fact would happen. Also, Donald Trump's policy of sharply higher tariffs could have significant effects in currency markets and be negative for other countries, although it is worth keeping in mind that if US fiscal policy is loosened it will, all else equal, increase the need for US imports, higher tariffs notwithstanding.

Elsewhere, global economic data appears to be supporting the outlook of a soft landing for the world economy. In the US, GDP grew at an annualised rate of 2.8 per cent in Q3, with core inflation hovering near the 2 per cent target. Employment rose by only 12,000 in October, marking the smallest monthly gain since the pandemic, a figure probably impacted by port strikes and weather-related events. Overall, the labour market appears to be cooling gradually, keeping the path open for the Fed to consider gradual rate cuts.

Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, economic growth exceeded expectations, reaching 0.4 per cent q-o-q – about 1.6 per cent annualised - in Q3, above most estimates of long-term potential. However, this growth was partially driven by the Olympic Games in France and a downward revision for Germany’s Q2 numbers. The underlying data still points to weaknesses in the Eurozone’s two largest economies, while southern Europe, especially Spain, continues to grow robustly.

Euro area unemployment hit a record low of 6.3 per cent in September, and inflation in October aligned exactly with the 2 per cent target. Given the underlying growth concerns, inflationary pressures should ease, with the ECB worried about a potential return to an era of persistently low inflation. As a result, there could be a series of 25 basis point rate cuts, potentially bringing the ECB deposit rate down from 3.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent by September next year. However, given the recent positive data, the likelihood of a 50 basis points cut at the next meeting is low.

And in China, PMI data indicates a growth pickup in October, though specifics on planned stimulus are still awaited to fully assess the outlook. In Japan, an ambiguous election outcome has created some uncertainty around economic and monetary policies, where markets still anticipate rate hikes, though the timing is unclear. Meanwhile, in the UK, the government’s budget plans, which imply nearly GBP 150 Bn in additional borrowing over five years, have renewed concerns about the fiscal outlook. While the UK also appears to be on a path to rate cuts, they may proceed more slowly compared to the rest of Europe.


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    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

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    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

    Contact: Stuart Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44 (0)20 3142 0144

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business

    Contact: Stuart Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44 (0)20 3142 0144

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