We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.
Troubled Waters
China's factory output and retail sales beat expectations in the January-February period, marking a solid start for 2024 and offering some relief to policymakers even as weakness in the property sector remains a drag on the economy and confidence.
Monday's data join recent better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators, providing an early boost to Beijing's hopes of reaching what could be described as an ambitious 5.0 per cent GDP growth target for this year.
Industrial output rose by 7.0 per cent in the first two months of the year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, above expectations for a 5.0 per cent increase in a Reuters poll and faster than the 6.8 per cent growth seen in December. It also marked the quickest growth in almost two years.
Manufacturing and infrastructure investments remained solid in 2023, supported by fiscal stimulus and industrial policy support to the green sectors especially, and this should continue in 2024. Export growth is also set to gradually improve as the global manufacturing cycle turns higher.
Global monetary easing expectations may also offer some relief for China's hopes of strengthening its vast manufacturing sector, although economic conditions in many key developed nations look gloomy over the near term. Britain slipped into a recession in the second half of last year, while Japan and the eurozone have shown meagre growth.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose by 5.5 per cent, slowing from a 7.4 per cent increase in December but beating an expected 5.2 per cent gain. And the eight-day Lunar New Year holiday in February saw a solid return of travel, which supported revenue of tourism and hospitality sectors. That also led to 3 per cent growth in oil refinery throughput to meet strong demand for transport fuels.
China has witnessed deflation in overall consumer prices, but this has mostly driven by a big decline in food prices and not broad-based deflation. However, core inflation is low at 0.4 per cent and is clearly a symptom of soft demand as well as fierce competition and price wars in some sectors.
However, a protracted crisis in the property sector remains a major concern for policymakers, consumers and global commodity exporters. Monday's data offered little relief on that front, with declines in property investment narrowing in January-February, but still far from levels of reaching stability.
The frailty of the sector was highlighted by the poor demand. Property sales by floor area logged a 20.5 per cent slide in January-February from a year earlier, compared with a 23.0 per cent fall in December last year.
The job market, another area closely watched by authorities and global markets, showed mixed results, having deteriorated sharply during the Covid years. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate rose to 5.3 per cent in February from 5.2 per cent January, which NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua attributed to seasonal factors associated with the Lunar New Year.
Policymakers have pledged to roll out further measures to help stabilise growth after the steps implemented since June had only a modest effect, but the scope for upside here remains limited given that Beijing's fiscal capacity is now estimated to be very limited, while Li's address to the annual parliamentary meeting failed to inspire investor confidence.
The country's central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, also said earlier this month that there was still room to cut banks' reserve ratio requirement, following a 50 basis points cut announced in January, which was the biggest in two years.
On the downside, there is even a risk that China may begin flirting with Japan-style stagnation later this decade unless authorities take steps to reorient the economy towards household consumption and market-allocation of resources, according to economists interviewed by Reuters.
Overall, China appears to be in a structural transition to reduce reliance on housing as a demand driver and aim for an economy where the growth drivers are instead high-tech investments, upgrade of manufacturing, green investments, and private consumption.
The transition could be difficult to navigate successfully and is set to continue to weigh on growth in the short term, especially amid low household confidence expectations. In the long term, China has the potential to come out stronger, but the path there is to be long and bumpy with difficulty in turning on the consumer engine especially. Welfare reforms and market reforms, among other things, will be needed.
The long-term growth potential also faces headwinds from a falling working age population, Western tech sanctions and lower foreign investments. Yet, some, such as Danske Bank, still see China’s growth around 4 per cent throughout the second half of the 2020s. A still-low GDP per capita, less than 20 per cent of the US’s level, as well as a strong focus on education, innovation, AI, robots and other tech investments, could be the main pillars for long-term growth potential. A retirement reform over the coming years has the potential to mitigate some of the demographic headwind - China today has a very low retirement age, around 55 for women and 60 for men, which is leaving untapped potential on the table and could cripple the pension system in the next decade.
Looking at other possible and probable headwinds, relations with the US are expected to be a prominent feature. US-China tensions have calmed following the Xi-Biden meeting in November and there is a cautious optimism for this year. However, the long-term rivalry is here to stay, and relations could deteriorate again if Donald Trump were to return to the White House in 2025.
Affinity Research LLP
Carbon
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Containers
Containers
Our specialised Container team in South America arranges freight & logistic solutions primarily for the mining and perishable industries.
Contact: Andrea Meza Allemant
[email protected]
+51 99 115 2393
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
LNG
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business
Contact: Stuart Morrison
[email protected]
+44 (0)20 3142 0144
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Containers
Our specialised Container team in South America arranges freight & logistic solutions primarily for the mining and perishable industries.
Contact: Andrea Meza Allemant
[email protected]
+51 99 115 2393
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
+56 99 887 3036
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Affinity Valuations Limited Terms of Business
Contact: Stuart Morrison
[email protected]
+44 (0)20 3142 0144
Click here for our terms of business
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3V 4AB
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
LONDON
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3V 4AB
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
SINGAPORE
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
PERTH
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
Suite 3.05, Level 3
9-11 Claremont Street
South Yarra
VIC 3141, Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
MELBOURNE
Suite 3.05, Level 3
9-11 Claremont Street
South Yarra
VIC 3141, Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
SYDNEY
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
7/455 Brunswick St
Fortitude Valley
Brisbane
QLD 4006
View full office info
BRISBANE
7/455 Brunswick St
Fortitude Valley
Brisbane
QLD 4006
View full office info
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
SEOUL
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
HOUSTON
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
BEIJING
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
HONG KONG
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
Room 805, 8/F, The Crest
No 500 West Yan An Road,
Shanghai,
People’s Republic of China
View full office info
SHANGHAI
Room 805, 8/F, The Crest
No 500 West Yan An Road,
Shanghai,
People’s Republic of China
View full office info
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
LIMA
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
SANTIAGO
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
MONTEVIDEO
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
ROTTERDAM
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
Cort Adelers gate 16
0254 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
OSLO
Cort Adelers gate 16
0254 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
1199 W Hastings St, unit 1201
Vancouver BC
V6E 3T5
Canada
View full office info
VANCOUVER
1199 W Hastings St, unit 1201
Vancouver BC
V6E 3T5
Canada
View full office info
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info
BERGEN
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info
Rua Duque Estrada 36/101 Rio de Janeiro, 22451-090, Brazil
View full office info
RIO DE JANEIRO
Rua Duque Estrada 36/101 Rio de Janeiro, 22451-090, Brazil
View full office info
501 5th Ave, New York, NY 10017, USA
View full office info
NEW YORK
501 5th Ave, New York, NY 10017, USA
View full office info