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Federal Reserve officials are expected to lay bare how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rates rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting on Wednesday, with the market on alert for a faster pace of tightening.
The scaling back could be completed as early as mid-2022, clearing the way for the Fed to lift interest rates from near-zero any time after that. The consensus among economists polled by Reuters is for rates to remain near zero until 2023,, but more than one-quarter of respondents in the September survey forecast the Fed raising rates next year.
Furthermore, several economists have been downgrading their gross domestic product estimates for the current quarter, citing weak motor vehicle sales as inventory shortages persist, and a recent surge of Covid-19 infections fueled by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, although data released last Thursday showed US retail sales unexpectedly increased in August.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the volume of ECB bond purchases is becoming "less important" as the economic outlook improves and the money-printing scheme becomes a tool for guiding rate expectations, board member Isabel Schnabel said on Monday.
The ECB cut the pace of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme this month and is expected to end it in March. It is also running a smaller, older Asset Purchase Programme, which it plans to end shortly before raising interest rates. Still, market expectations are of an increase in APP from April 2022 to make up for the missing PEPP volumes.
Schnabel said the ECB was happy to see upside changes to inflation after it had undershot its 2 per cent target for so long. The ECB expects inflation to come in at 2.2 per cent this year before easing back to 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023.
Meanwhile, prices in the eurozone rose by 3 per cent m-o-m in August, pushed up by energy costs but also by industrial goods made more expensive by supply bottlenecks.
However, for energy prices, the price increase is expected to be much higher as gas prices are hitting repeated highs as Europe is heading into winter with low stocks. This follows lower supplies from Russia and domestic sources as gasfield operators undertake maintenance delayed from last year. LNG supplies, which come via tankers, have also tightened globally because of strong demand in Asia and Latin America, creating a bidding war for cargoes.
The rise in prices has serious knock-on effects not just for consumers, but also for the industry as a whole. In the UK, energy companies could be offered emergency state-backed loans to take on unprofitable customers from failing smaller suppliers, as ministers struggle to contain the crisis. Out of 55 companies supplying the market, only 10 could be left standing by Christmas according to a statement by Kwasi Kwarteng, business and energy secretary.
In other news, Evergrande - China’s largest property developer – is facing a liquidity crisis. What makes this newsworthy is that, in China, the real estate sector is estimated to account for up to a quarter of GDP. Global equity markets led by Asian real estate and the basic material sector have already started to show signs of concern.
Commodities other than oil, gas and coal could be entering choppy waters in the last quarter mostly because the Chinese property sector accounts for a fifth of all global and steel supply, and an estimated 5 to 20 per cent of global commodity supplies.
So far, the hardest hit was iron ore, trading at USD 100/T on Friday from the record high USD 230/T last May. Behind such spectacular a downfall is not just a cooling real estate market, but also government production curbs are playing an important role in this market’s cool-off.
Ironically enough, the domestic price of coking coal, the other key ingredient to make steel, was up by 60 per cent on the month at USD 577/T last Friday as Covid-related supply disruptions have hit imports from Mongolia, and Australian coal is banned from China.
Affinity Research LLP
Carbon
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact David Oakley
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
Contact: David Oakley
[email protected]
LNG
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
+47 2109 8210
Research
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact David Oakley
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
+56 99 887 3036
Contact: David Oakley
[email protected]
+61 2 9937 8806
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
+47 2109 8210
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
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Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
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LONDON
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
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72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
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SINGAPORE
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
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200 Toorak Road
South Yarra
VIC 3141
Australia
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MELBOURNE
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South Yarra
VIC 3141
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West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
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PERTH
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1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
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SYDNEY
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
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#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
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SEOUL
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
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6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
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HONG KONG
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
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1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
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HOUSTON
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
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Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
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BEIJING
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
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Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
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LIMA
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
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Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
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SHANGHAI
Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
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Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
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SANTIAGO
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
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Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
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MONTEVIDEO
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
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Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
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BUENOS AIRES
Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
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Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
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RIO GRANDE
Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
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Address to be reconfirmed
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ROTTERDAM
Address to be reconfirmed
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Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
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OSLO
Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
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