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We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 03 September 2018

 

Do Cry for me Argentina
The crisis for the country seems to be much deeper than only economic, as next year’s presidential elections approach.


It only took 10 months for Argentina to experience another major political crisis, driven by its economic performance, as we approach next year’s presidential elections. The currency crisis broke out in late April and last week might have reached its bottom, as after two days of market panic the peso’s value collapsed, having fallen around 15 per cent. But many believe that the next political crisis might have just started for La Albiceleste. The main driver behind the peso’s most recent plunge is believed to have been President Macri’s call for the IMF to speed up payments of a USD 50 Bn bailout package agreed in June.

The country’s government faces a plethora of risks, but under the current situation its priorities become more than obvious. They are trying to preventing the currency from spiralling into a run on the banks, similar to what happened in the 2001-02 economic crisis, following the failure of  IMF’s last programme in Argentina. The next thing for the government to worry about is the increasing unrest on the streets by leftist militants and trade unions.

“The solution [to this crisis] is not purely economic, it’s also political,” said Mario Blejer, a former central bank governor. Additional political forces will be needed to increase stability, as the unity of Cambiemos “cannot continue to govern alone”, he added. Without doubt, more help will be required to pass the 2019 budget bill in congress. This could calm nervy investors by providing clarifications regards the government’s plans to meet its target to cut the primary fiscal deficit to 1.3 per cent of GDP next year.

Even assuming President Macri manages to successfully restore stability to the peso, investors would still remain sceptical about whether he would win next year’s elections and the future of the country’s economy. Inflation stands well above targets, the economy has been contracting and the risk of another sovereign default further increases. All this benefits the moderate Peronist opposition. The latter has also benefited from the latest scandal to discredit former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner after accusations of her leading a criminal ring taking bribes from construction companies in public works projects.

Elsewhere, Turkey’s central bank is now expected to proceed with a long-awaited interest rate rise next week after new data suggest that inflation approaches four times its official target. Annual consumer prices rose 17.9 per cent in August, with producer prices up 32.1 per cent year-on-year. After the publication of the data, the central bank noted that its “monetary stance will be adjusted” during the meeting of its rate-setting committee next Thursday, having warned that the latest data posed “significant risks to price stability”. The country’s lira regained some of its losses, now trading at TRY 6.62 to the USD.

The central bank previously refused to raise rates despite the lira losing 40 per cent of its value against the USD so far this year and inflation moving much higher than its official 5 per cent target, mainly driven by the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s opposition to high interest rates.

The market’s reaction has been positive so far, but some analysts are cautious and expect next week’s interest rate rise to be insufficient.  

Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Fotios Katsoulas
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0186

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Fotios Katsoulas
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0186

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

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  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

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    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

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    Singapore
    079911

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    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

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    VIC 3004
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    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
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    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

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  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

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    SEOUL

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    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

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    20 Queen's Road Central
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    T +852 2154 2237

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  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

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    HOUSTON

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    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

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  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1005,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

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    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1005,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • Basadre 607,
    Office 208, Lima, Peru

    T +511 712 3772

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    LIMA

    Dry Cargo


    Basadre 607,
    Office 208, Lima, Peru

    T +511 712 3772

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  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

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    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo Tankers


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Inkognitogata 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogata 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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