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WHO WE ARE

We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 05 November 2018

 

Concern for emerging economies across Asia.
China’s slowdown and the tension between Beijing and Washington could quickly put several industries under pressure


In parallel to the escalating trade war between the US and China there has been rising concern across Asia-Pacific economies as economists are worried about the potential impact this tension could have on local economies.

Meanwhile, the growth of China’s economy is set to further slow down, with several Asian companies realising the risk of lower Chinese demand in the near future. This could mean significant pressure for a plethora of industries, such as Australian iron ore and South Korean cars. The first signs are already there to observe, with some Far Eastern car makers already blaming China’s performance for their softening results.

South Korea recently announced stimulus measures, such as tax cuts, in an effort to invigorate growth. The country’s exports fell 8 per cent in September year-on-year. This has been the biggest drop at least since 2016. Kim Dong-yeon, South Korea’s finance minister, warned about the growing external risks and the impact they could have on his country’s economy.

Moving to Japan, several industrial manufacturers have expressed their concern about the ripple effect the US-China trade war could have on the global economy. One of the main reasons to worry is the potential duration of this trade war, as this is not expected to be over quickly. Some voices suggest that a tension between the world’s two biggest economies could quickly spread to other regions across the world potentially leading to a global economic slowdown.

Analysts in Taiwan have been warning that economies depending on exports of high-tech electronics to China are directly exposed to the risk of contracting regional trade volumes, driven by China’s slowing down of consumption.





As mentioned in the FT, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker and one of the country’s most important businesses, commented that there has been no change observed so far in the behaviour of the company’s Chinese customers (accounting for about a tenth of its sales).

The most recent World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update estimated that an 1 percentage point drop in China’s GDP growth would impact aggregate growth across emerging Asia-Pacific economies by 0.5 per cent after two years.

According to the same source, China would immediately cut its import of commodities, after a potential growth shock. The impact would be significant for countries such as Mongolia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, as they are dependent on China’s appetite for their exports, “leaving those countries highly exposed to economic fluctuations in China”.

September was tough for Thailand’s tourist industry, as the number of visitors arriving from China fell sharply, by 15 per cent.  

Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Fotios Katsoulas
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0186

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.

    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    Finance

    Affinity Financial Products Ltd is authorised by the FCA to provide advice and execution of regulated activities. We focus our efforts on asset-related transactions often structured as corporate share sales or mergers and acquisitions.
    We work in partnership with investment banks providing specific, shipping-related advice.

    Contact: Andrew Finn
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0114

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8211

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Fotios Katsoulas
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0186

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Toby English
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0123

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

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Our locations


  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info

    LONDON

    Dry Cargo LNG Research S & P Tankers Newbuilding Finance Valuations


    Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

    View full office info


  • 72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info

    SINGAPORE

    Dry Cargo S & P Tankers


    72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

    View full office info


  • Level 8
    420 St Kilda Road
    Melbourne
    VIC 3004
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info

    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Level 8
    420 St Kilda Road
    Melbourne
    VIC 3004
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

    View full office info


  • 8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

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    PERTH

    Dry Cargo


    8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

    View full office info


  • 1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info

    SYDNEY

    Dry Cargo


    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

    View full office info


  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info

    SEOUL

    Newbuilding LNG S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info


  • 601 Pacific House
    20 Queen's Road Central
    Central, Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info

    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    601 Pacific House
    20 Queen's Road Central
    Central, Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info

    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • Av. Jorge Basadre 356,
    San Idro, Lima
    Peru

    T +51 1777 8944

    View full office info

    LIMA

    Dry Cargo


    Av. Jorge Basadre 356,
    San Idro, Lima
    Peru

    T +51 1777 8944

    View full office info


  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info


  • Inkognitogata 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info

    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogata 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

    View full office info