We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.
Fast Like A Rabbit, Or Slow Like A Tortoise?
China's declaration that it is open for business was welcomed by attendees at the World Economic as a probable boost to global growth, though many also expressed caution over how it could drive up global Covid-19 cases and inflation.
The topic of China's reopening came up at several discussions, both public and private, as China’s Vice Premier Liu He made a big pitch for foreign investment in Davos on the first visit abroad by a high-level Chinese delegation since Beijing shelved its three-year-old zero-Covid policy.
While Liu said that people in China were recovering faster than he had expected from Covid-19 after the dismantling of curbs unleashed a giant wave of infections, many executives with businesses in China said they were still forecasting a bumpy few months before things start to get better.
Still, the economic recovery currently looks frontloaded, starting already in early Q1 rather than late Q1 as the service sector is already showing clear signs of rebounding and companies are likely to raise production in anticipation of better demand in the coming quarters. It follows a Q4 2022 GDP release last Monday that came out flat at 0.0 per cent q-o-q, versus market expectations of -1.0 per cent q-o-q.
An earlier recovery boosts GDP expectations for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.6 per cent, according to Danske Bank, as the stronger-than-expected Q4 lifts the carry over into 2023, and an increase in the Q1 2023 forecast lifts the starting point for 2023 further. However, a more frontloaded recovery leaves room for less growth in 2024 as the effect from pent-up demand fades earlier.
The new expectations also change PMI manufacturing ideas for the coming months, with a more rapid increase in the near-future and, while PMI is likely to continue higher into the autumn, it could then peak as the initial growth spurt starts to lose some steam.
And for Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, the reopening could help supply chains work better and also boost consumer demand. However, it remains to be seen what the opening up impact is on the pandemic.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan surprised markets on Wednesday by leaving their yield-curve-control policy unchanged, against market expectations of a widening of the target band or a removal of the policy altogether. This came as wage pressures keep rising in Japan, and on Friday CPI rose to a decade-high of 4 per cent, with core at 3 per cent.
The BoJ now owns close to all outstanding 10-Year government bonds, resulting a in poorly functioning market and a strongly dislocated yield curve. The price reaction to the surprise on Wednesday was reassuring however, as USD/JPY rose by less than 2.5 per cent, falling quickly thereafter, and is now trading almost unchanged to before the meeting around at around JPY 129.
Overall, the BoJ seems to just be postponing the inevitable and will probably eventually need to revise their monetary policy approach. Key catalysts to watch will be the choice of the new governor, who should be announced within the next month, and further wage developments in the country.
Meanwhile, dovish ECB members tried to push for smaller hikes this week, attempting to steer markets away from Lagarde’s December guidance for two 50 basis points hikes in February and March. The doves make a case of falling inflation driven by lower energy prices. More hawkish members including Lagarde, Lane, Knot, Rehn and Holzmann quickly pushed back against this, and said the guidance for several 50 basis points hikes remains valid.
December core CPI rose to 5.2 per cent earlier this month, but persistently higher wage growth in the Eurozone, around 5-6 per cent, will likely keep core inflation higher for longer.
On the other side of the pond, US economic data worsened this week, with retail sales dropping by 1.1 per cent m-o-m and the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey for current business conditions dropping to -32.9, much lower than the -8.7 survey.
For a while, bad economic data was seen as good news, because it gave investors confidence that demand-pressures to inflation could eventually subside and the Fed could slow down. However, this narrative is now turning. Markets are becoming confident that US inflation will fall quickly (market pricing sees June inflation falling to 2.1 per cent by June) and the Fed slows down to 25 basis points in February (market pricing implies 27.5 basis points).
This could be the sign of a looming recession and should therefore be taking with caution by the market going forwards. In fact, if data in the US continues to worsen, there could be some more downside for risk assets, and more upside for safe havens such as government bonds.
Affinity Research LLP
Carbon
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Containers
Containers
Our specialised Container team in South America arranges freight & logistic solutions primarily for the mining and perishable industries.
Contact: Andrea Meza Allemant
[email protected]
+51 99 115 2393
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
LNG
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Containers
Our specialised Container team in South America arranges freight & logistic solutions primarily for the mining and perishable industries.
Contact: Andrea Meza Allemant
[email protected]
+51 99 115 2393
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
+56 99 887 3036
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
+61 418 448 677
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Click here for our terms of business
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
LONDON
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
SINGAPORE
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
PERTH
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
Suite 5, Level 1
200 Toorak Road
South Yarra
VIC 3141
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
MELBOURNE
Suite 5, Level 1
200 Toorak Road
South Yarra
VIC 3141
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
SYDNEY
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
Eagle Farm
Brisbane
QLD 4009
View full office info
BRISBANE
Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
Eagle Farm
Brisbane
QLD 4009
View full office info
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
SEOUL
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
HOUSTON
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
BEIJING
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
HONG KONG
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
View full office info
SHANGHAI
Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
View full office info
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
LIMA
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
SANTIAGO
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
MONTEVIDEO
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
View full office info
BUENOS AIRES
Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
View full office info
Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
View full office info
RIO GRANDE
Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
View full office info
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
ROTTERDAM
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
OSLO
Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
104-111 21st St
West Vancouver
BC V7V 0C2
Canada
View full office info
VANCOUVER
104-111 21st St
West Vancouver
BC V7V 0C2
Canada
View full office info
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info
BERGEN
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info