We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.
Weaekning dollar the faintest of lights among the gloom
Indications that the worst of inflation in the US is over are translating to a fall in the US dollar, with markets beginning to believe that the Federal Reserve will soon slow its interest rate hikes. In October, inflation came in at 7.7 per cent, the fourth consecutive month of declines from June’s 9.1 per cent peak, and its lowest level since January.
Moreover, at the Fed’s last meeting earlier this month, chair Jay Powell did not go so far as to explicitly signal that there would be a fifth straight 0.75 percentage point rise, and this has been interpreted as a sign that the Fed is open to a smaller reduction of 0.5 points in the future, potentially as soon as next month.
As a result, the US dollar has eased over the past couple of weeks, after months of strong gains on the back of the Fed’s sharp monetary tightening. Year-to-date, it has strengthened by 11 per cent but, as of the end of last week, the US dollar had fallen by over 4 per cent compared to a basket of six peers, which leaves it on course for its largest monthly decline since September 2010.
The Fed must also to take into account a slowing economy. Data from the housing and manufacturing sectors, among others show that the US economy is beginning to stutter, which is a deterrent for more monetary tightening from the Fed.
But that is not to say that the US dollar cannot return it its 20-year high. Any slight increase in inflation could spark a turnaround in sentiment; in the UK, the surprise increase in October to a new record-high of 10.7 per cent generated significant unease.
To that effect, St Louis Fed president James Bullard said that he believes interest rates would have to be lifted to at least 5 per cent to tame inflation. Following the hike in November, the benchmark rate is between 3.75 and 4 per cent.
The prospect of a weaker US dollar should theoretically bode well for global trade. Oil prices are already under heavy pressure from China locking down yet more of its country, and a weaker US dollar has made oil even “cheaper”. The same goes for other major commodities, but the potential upside benefits for shipping would be capped by the economic headwinds, which are continuing to pick up speed.
In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer revealed that the economy is already in recession, and that living standards are set to suffer their largest fall on record. In the next few years, household incomes will fall by 7 per cent and over half a million people will be rendered unemployed. By 2028, they will have recovering for a few years, but will still be over 1 per cent below compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The current recession is expected to last for over a year; the economy is expected to shrink by 1.4 per cent next year before the recovery begins.
In the EU, the European Commission is anticipating that most countries will enter a recession during the current quarter, with inflation expected to remain elevated through 2023. In the EU, inflation is expected to average 7 per cent next year and, in the eurozone, it is forecasted at 6.1 per cent.
Unlike the UK, however, the EU economy is expected to still register growth next year. The EC is forecasting growth of 0.3 per cent.
In China, the picture is little better. After a slight easing of Covid restrictions in the capital Beijing last week resulted in a glimmer of optimism, harsher lockdowns were triggered over the weekend in Guangzhou and Shijiazhuang, among others, in response to the country’s first deaths from Covid in more than five months. The aforementioned cities had received relatively light treatment in the past, so the change in posturing has triggered concerns that Beijing’s response to the virus will become harsher in the short-term.
Taking all this into account, it should come as little surprise that the IMF is warning of an even gloomier outlook for the global economy. Last week, it pointed to the steadily weakening purchasing manager surveys in recent months as evidence of the worsening slowdown, and may revise its growth forecast for this year further. Last month, the IMF reduced its forecast from 2.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
"The challenges that the global economy is facing are immense and weakening economic indicators point to further challenges ahead," the IMF said, in addition to the current policy environment, which it labelled “unusually uncertain”. Make no mistake, there are dark days ahead.
Affinity Research LLP
Carbon
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Dry Cargo
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
LNG
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Carbon
Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.
Contact: Hugo Wilson
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0121
Dry Cargo
Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna
Contact: Hans Bredrup
[email protected]
+56 99 887 3036
Contact: Rahul Khanna
[email protected]
+61 418 448 677
LNG
Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.
Contact: Joni Mackay
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0133
Newbuilding
Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.
Contact: Nick Wood
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0111
Offshore
Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.
Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
[email protected]
Research
Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology.
Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0182
S & P
Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.
Contact: Tom Morrison
[email protected]
+44(0) 20 3142 0128
Tankers
Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators.
Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.
Contact: Tim Gurdon
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0142
Valuations
We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.
Contact: Ben Pusey
[email protected]
+44(0)20 3142 0125
Click here for our terms of business
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
LONDON
Floor 44
The Leadenhall Building
122 Leadenhall Street
London EC3A 8EE
T +44 (0)203 142 0100
View full office info
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
SINGAPORE
72 Anson Road
#13–03 Anson House
Singapore
079911
T +65 6805 8760
View full office info
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
PERTH
8/38 Colin Street
West Perth
WA 6005
Australia
T +61 892 260 618
View full office info
Suite 5, Level 1
200 Toorak Road
South Yarra
VIC 3141
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
MELBOURNE
Suite 5, Level 1
200 Toorak Road
South Yarra
VIC 3141
Australia
T +61 398 671 466
View full office info
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
SYDNEY
1st Floor
64 Alexander Street
Crows Nest, NSW 2065
Australia
T +61 299 378 800
View full office info
Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
Eagle Farm
Brisbane
QLD 4009
View full office info
BRISBANE
Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
Eagle Farm
Brisbane
QLD 4009
View full office info
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
SEOUL
#703, Shin-A Building
50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
Jung-gu, Seoul
South Korea
100-752
View full office info
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
HOUSTON
1301 McKinney Street
Suite 2975
Houston, Texas
77010, USA
T +1 832 925 7500
View full office info
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
BEIJING
Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
Anli Road No. 80,
Chaoyang District,
Beijing, China, 100101
View full office info
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
HONG KONG
6/F Kimberley Plaza
45-47 Kimberley Road
Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
Hong Kong
T +852 2154 2237
View full office info
Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
View full office info
SHANGHAI
Room 04, 10/F, 500
Yan'an West Road,
Shanghai,
People's Republic of China
View full office info
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
LIMA
Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
Santiago de Surco, Lima,
Perú
View full office info
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
SANTIAGO
Augusto Leguia Norte 100
Office 710
Las Condes
7550155 Santiago
Chile
T +56 22 352 7100
View full office info
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
MONTEVIDEO
Misiones St. 1372,
1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
11000 Montevideo, Uruguay
View full office info
Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
View full office info
BUENOS AIRES
Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
Argentina
View full office info
Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
View full office info
RIO GRANDE
Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
Porto de Gale Business Center
Rio Grande
Brazil
View full office info
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
ROTTERDAM
Fascinatio Boulevard 742
2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
The Netherlands
View full office info
Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
OSLO
Inkognitogaten 35,
0256 Oslo
Norway
View full office info
104-111 21st St
West Vancouver
BC V7V 0C2
Canada
View full office info
VANCOUVER
104-111 21st St
West Vancouver
BC V7V 0C2
Canada
View full office info
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info
BERGEN
Kaigaten 12, 2nd floor
Bergen 5016
Norway
View full office info