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We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 15 august 2022

Rocking the markets

China's central bank cut key lending rates in a surprise move on Monday to revive demand as data showed the economy unexpectedly slowing in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-Covid policy and a property crisis.

The grim set of figures indicate the world's second-largest economy is struggling to shake off the June quarter's hit to growth from strict Covid restrictions, prompting some economists to downgrade their projections.

Industrial output grew 3.8 per cent in July from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, below the 3.9 per cent expansion in June and a 4.6 per cent increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Retail sales, which only just returned to growth in June, rose 2.7 per cent from a year ago, missing forecasts for 5 per cent growth and the 3.1 per cent growth seen in June.

Many believe the room for the People's Bank of China to ease policy further could be limited by worries about capital outflows, as the Federal Reserve, and other economies, aggressively raise interest rates to fight soaring inflation.

And speaking of the Devil, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin on Friday said he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control, and will watch US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September.

While data last week showing inflation did not accelerate in July was welcome, Barkin said, he would want to see inflation running at the Fed’s 2 per cent target for some time before stopping rate hikes.

The Fed has increased its policy rate sharply in recent months, including with two back-to-back 75 basis points rate hikes in June and July that brought the Fed's target rate range to 2.25-2.5 per cent.

Investors currently expect the Fed to downshift to a half-point hike at its meeting next month, although bets in rate-futures markets reflect about a 45 per cent chance of a third straight 75 basis points move.

Meanwhile, a University of Michigan survey released on Friday showed that inflation expectations for the year ahead fell this month to a six-month low of 5 per cent from 5.2 per cent, while the survey's five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3 per cent from 2.9 per cent.

Noting there will be further data on inflation and employment before then, Barkin said he will make a final decision closer to the time, and wants to see real borrowing costs, the cost of money after subtracting out measures of inflation and inflation expectations, move above zero.

After hearing the hawkish tones of the US central bank, Euro zone government bond yields edged higher on Monday, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Still, fixed income market participants seem to be holding their resolve to wait for minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole symposium next week before taking significant actions.

Meanwhile, money markets are pricing in a 50 basis points hike from the ECB at its meeting in September, in addition to a slight chance of a more significant rate rise.

All in all, risk appetite in global markets remained unchanged on Monday, with equities in positive territory after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut key interest rates to support the Covid-hit economy.


Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Carbon

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact Rahul Khanna

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: Rahul Khanna
    [email protected]
    +61 418 448 677

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

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Our locations


  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

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    LONDON

    Carbon Dry Cargo Finance LNG Newbuilding Research S & P Tankers Valuations


    Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

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  • 72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

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    SINGAPORE

    Dry Cargo LNG S & P Tankers


    72 Anson Road
    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

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  • 8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

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    PERTH

    Dry Cargo


    8/38 Colin Street
    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

    T +61 892 260 618

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  • Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

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    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

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  • 1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

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    SYDNEY

    Dry Cargo


    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

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  • Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
    Eagle Farm
    Brisbane
    QLD 4009


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    BRISBANE

    Dry Cargo


    Unit 1, 41 Lavarack Ave
    Eagle Farm
    Brisbane
    QLD 4009


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  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

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    SEOUL

    LNG Newbuilding S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

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    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • 6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

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    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


    View full office info

    SHANGHAI

    Dry Cargo


    Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


    View full office info


  • Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

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    LIMA

    Containers Dry Cargo


    Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

    View full office info


  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

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  • Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

    View full office info

    BUENOS AIRES

    Dry Cargo


    Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

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  • Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info

    RIO GRANDE

    Dry Cargo


    Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info


  • Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


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    ROTTERDAM

    Dry Cargo


    Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


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  • Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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