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We are an independent shipbroker with an approach focused on expertise rather than scale.

Affinity Policy Comment 22 November 2021

Less talk, more action

The recent wave of new Covid cases in Europe is rattling markets as the struggle against rising inflation and higher interest rate expectations intensifies.

According to Bloomberg, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told officials from her CDU party that the situation is highly dramatic and warned that hospitals would soon be overwhelmed unless the fourth wave of the pandemic is broken.

Austria has already powered down public life from Monday as its fourth national Covid-19 lockdown began, the first in a western European country.

Safe-haven assets have already started to benefit from the recent cautious tone. The US dollar index traded at 96.065 on Monday morning, staying within sight of last week's 16-month high of 96.266.

The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries was steady at 1.56 per cent, with the yield curve at its flattest level since the pandemic began as markets eyed nervously the prospects of a faster unwinding of stimulus.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said last week that quickening the pace of tapering might be worth discussing at December's meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was nominated for a second four-year term by President Joe Biden on Monday, extending a tenure that positions the ex-investment banker to finish the most consequential revamp of monetary policy since the 1970s.

Interestingly enough, Powell has reiterated several times his beliefs that the current inflation surge will subside next year as supply chains are repaired.

Meanwhile, China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said on Thursday that global inflation has increased sharply and whether this inflation pressure is transitory is yet to be seen.

The global economic recovery has slowed since the middle of the year due to repeated virus outbreaks, shocks to global supply chains and surging energy prices, while global inflation has sharply increased.

And as global economic growth is once again slowing down, the seemingly unstoppable surge in container shipping rates could be posing a threat to the global economic recovery, according to UNCTAD.

In its Review of Maritime Transport for 2021, the UN agency said that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11 per cent and consumer price levels by 1.5 per cent between now and 2023.

This comes as the Biden administration in July asked the Federal Maritime Commission to investigate excessive shipping fees, and last Thursday urged the independent agency to consider challenging the ocean carrier alliances that dominate global shipping if their actions resulted in unreasonable costs or delays.

Shipping alliances are legally immune from antitrust laws, but the commission can challenge them if they result in unreasonable delays or higher costs, or substantially lessened competition, the White House said.

Meanwhile, Chinese data law is also expected to add to global shipping disruptions. The Personal Information Protection Law, which came into effect on 1 November, has added to a raft of new rules designed to increase government control over how domestic and foreign organisations collect and export China's data.

Although there are no specific guidelines on shipping data in the regulations, some domestic providers in China have stopped giving information to foreign companies as a direct consequence of the new rules.

The data is relied upon to provide information on cargo volumes and helps optimise logistics by predicting congestion so companies can make key decisions on shipping routes. If this continues, there will be a big impact in terms of global visibility especially as we come into the busy Christmas period with supply chains already facing severe strains all over the world.

From 28 October to 15 November, the level of terrestrial shipping data across all Chinese waters was estimated to have dropped 90 per cent according to VesselsValue.

With China being a major importer of coal and iron ore and one of the main container exporters globally, this decline in positional data could cause significant challenges concerning supply chain visibility.

And what worries market participants the most is the lack of details around how AIS users will be able to keep tabs on shipping movements if the data gaps continue.

Rather than debating whether inflation and supply chain disruptions are temporary or not, policymakers should start acting and bridge over differences, after all, we are all quite literally in the same boat.


Affinity Research LLP

what we do

  • Carbon

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact David Oakley

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]

    LNG

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

    Carbon

    Using tailored analytics platforms, we offer client-specific advisory and trading services across the global carbon markets. Contributing to hedging strategies, sustainability reporting and financing requirements, our aim is to assist clients in managing their financial exposure to the approaching energy transition.

    Contact: Hugo Wilson
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0121

    Dry Cargo

    Our dry bulk chartering teams in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Santiago, Lima, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore and London are cargo-focussed and they fix voyage, COA and time charter business on behalf of their clients with a wide range of ship owners.
    For Atlantic business please contact Hans Bredrup
    For Pacific business please contact David Oakley

    Contact: Hans Bredrup
    [email protected]
    +56 99 887 3036
    Contact: David Oakley
    [email protected]
    +61 2 9937 8806

    LNG

    Our young and dynamic LNG team possess wide-ranging experience of spot and term charters working with all major LNG shipowners and charterers. The LNG team has close interaction with the Newbuilding and Sale & Purchase divisions with an unrivalled track record of contracting LNG newbuildings and in the sale and purchase of LNG assets.
    We maintain up-to-date knowledge and an understanding of new technologies within the LNG sector to ensure that our clients can make the most suitable and cost-effective decisions on shipping solutions.

    Contact: Joni Mackay
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0133

    Newbuilding

    Our Newbuilding team has concluded over 500 newbuildings of all types, including LNGCs, FSRUs, drillships, crude tankers, product tankers and dry cargo vessels. We have contracted in all major newbuilding centres globally, with particular focus on the Korean Shipyards.

    Contact: Nick Wood
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0111

    Offshore

    Affinity Offshore is based out of our Oslo and Houston offices. The Team focuses on world-wide sale & purchase of offshore support vessels, as well as chartering – particularly in the Americas and Mediterranean/MENA regions.

    Contact: Tor-Øyvind Bjørkli
    [email protected]
    +47 2109 8210

    Research

    Our research department combines real time market information with econometric modelling and the latest technology. 

    Contact: Sevita Kondyliou
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0182

    S & P

    Our Sale & Purchase team has extensive experience of working with private clients, national shipping companies, major corporates, oil companies, grain houses and institutional investors. We provide a cradle to grave services across all shipping sectors. We operate from London, Singapore and Seoul to give 24-hour coverage of the markets, working for both newbuilding and second-hand buyers.

    Contact: Tom Morrison
    [email protected]
    +44(0) 20 3142 0128

    Tankers

    Our established tanker chartering teams serve the industry from London, Houston and Santiago delivering a highly proficient spot chartering service with a prime position in the fuel oil market. The team has close relationships with oil majors, national oil companies, oil traders and major ship owners and operators. 
    Our ethos for operations and post-fixture is simple: these roles are as important to us as the chartering/commercial function, and we continue to apply those same principles of professional ship broking throughout the life of each fixture.

    Contact: Tim Gurdon
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0142

    Valuations

    We provide transparent, objective ship valuation service to major owners, banks and other financial institutions at short notice and a daily basis. We provide a retainer service for regular fleet valuations.

    Contact: Ben Pusey
    [email protected]
    +44(0)20 3142 0125

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  • Floor 44
    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

    T +44 (0)203 142 0100

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    LONDON

    Carbon Dry Cargo Finance LNG Newbuilding Research S & P Tankers Valuations


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    The Leadenhall Building
    122 Leadenhall Street
    London EC3A 8EE

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    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

    T +65 6805 8760

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    Dry Cargo LNG S & P Tankers


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    #13–03 Anson House
    Singapore
    079911

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  • Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

    T +61 398 671 466

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    MELBOURNE

    Dry Cargo


    Suite 5, Level 1
    200 Toorak Road
    South Yarra
    VIC 3141
    Australia

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    West Perth
    WA 6005
    Australia

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    PERTH

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    WA 6005
    Australia

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  • 1st Floor
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    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

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    SYDNEY

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    1st Floor
    64 Alexander Street
    Crows Nest, NSW 2065
    Australia

    T +61 299 378 800

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  • #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

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    SEOUL

    LNG Newbuilding S & P


    #703, Shin-A Building
    50 Seosomun-ro 11gil
    Jung-gu, Seoul
    South Korea
    100-752

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  • 6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

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    HONG KONG

    Tankers


    6/F Kimberley Plaza
    45-47 Kimberley Road
    Tsim Sha Tsui. Kowloon
    Hong Kong

    T +852 2154 2237

    View full office info


  • 1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

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    HOUSTON

    Tankers


    1301 McKinney Street
    Suite 2975
    Houston, Texas
    77010, USA

    T +1 832 925 7500

    View full office info


  • Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info

    BEIJING

    LNG Tankers


    Marco Polo Parkside Building 1204,
    Anli Road No. 80,
    Chaoyang District,
    Beijing, China, 100101

    View full office info


  • Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

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    LIMA

    Containers Dry Cargo


    Jirón Cruz del Sur 140, of. 1712,
    Santiago de Surco, Lima,
    Perú

    View full office info


  • Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


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    SHANGHAI

    Dry Cargo


    Room 04, 10/F, 500
    Yan'an West Road,
    Shanghai,
    People's Republic of China


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  • Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info

    SANTIAGO

    Dry Cargo


    Augusto Leguia Norte 100
    Office 710
    Las Condes
    7550155 Santiago
    Chile

    T +56 22 352 7100

    View full office info


  • Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

    View full office info

    MONTEVIDEO

    Dry Cargo


    Misiones St. 1372,
    1st Floor "De Los Patricios" Building,
    11000 Montevideo, Uruguay

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  • Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

    View full office info

    BUENOS AIRES

    Dry Cargo


    Viamonte 174, 4 to B,
    C1053ABD Buenos Aires,
    Argentina

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  • Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info

    RIO GRANDE

    Dry Cargo


    Rua Barão de Cotegipe, 443, room 1310
    Porto de Gale Business Center
    Rio Grande
    Brazil


    View full office info


  • Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


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    ROTTERDAM

    Dry Cargo


    Fascinatio Boulevard 742
    2909 VA Capelle aan den IJssel
    The Netherlands


    View full office info


  • Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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    OSLO

    Offshore


    Inkognitogaten 35,
    0256 Oslo
    Norway

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