Macro Topics Note 20 July 2026

Andy Burnham has become UK prime minister, promising national renewal, greater devolution, and cost-of-living support while markets cautiously assess his policy direction. Escalation in the Middle East is disrupting oil exports and shipping routes, increasing supply risks and keeping prices elevated. Global grain supplies remain ample for now, but tightening balances, reduced acreage, and disruptions to Ukrainian exports are creating greater vulnerability to future shocks. LNG supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz are driving Asian buyers to diversify sourcing, creating significant opportunities for US exporters. Container freight rates have begun to soften as early peak-season demand fades, though geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty for shipping markets.