The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid a US-Iran standoff, while fragile ceasefire efforts in Gaza and Lebanon risk further destabilising the region and complicating any reopening of the vital shipping route. The US has extended its Jones Act waiver for another 90 days to ease domestic fuel transport disruptions caused by the Hormuz crisis, although tighter approval requirements are likely to limit its overall impact on freight markets and fuel prices.
Weak Chinese steel demand and production cuts, combined with war-related disruptions to Ukraine’s largest steel plant, are weighing on global steel markets and threatening dry bulk trade flows. LNG trade flows are being reshaped by lower Chinese imports, growing Latin American demand and increased Indian purchases from the US, supporting longer-haul shipping demand despite Middle East supply disruptions. Tight vessel capacity, Panama Canal constraints and resilient US import demand have pushed Asia-US container spot rates to yearly highs, even as Asia-Europe routes remain under pressure