Black Gold Strikes Back

Southeast Asian countries are increasingly turning to coal-fired power generation to offset LNG supply disruptions and maintain energy security. Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines have already increased coal use, while South Korea recently raised coal imports to their highest levels since mid-February. Coal’s share of dry bulk tonne-miles fell from 19 per cent in 2024 to 18 per cent in 2025, reflecting a longer-term shift toward cleaner fuels. However, the Middle East conflict and LNG shortages could reverse this trend, with an estimated 80 Mn T shortfall in LNG potentially driving an additional 160–250 Mn T of coal demand due to lower plant efficiency. Supply constraints, including Australian LNG outages, port capacity, and shipping availability, may further strain coal logistics, particularly for high-quality thermal coal needed in Japan and South Korea. The duration of this coal resurgence will depend on the persistence of LNG disruptions, speed of alternative supply solutions, and strategic fuel stockpiling, emphasizing how energy security can rapidly reshape fuel demand patterns.