Research Reports

US dry bulk exports to China fell by 60 per cent since 2022, with grain and oilseed exports rising 170 per cent in 2026. A new trade deal may enhance future recovery, particularly for coal, dependent on market conditions.

Dry bulk asset values rose by 13 per cent in 2026, with Ultramax improving 19 per cent, driven by strong demand and rising 1-year TC rates, while earnings-to-value ratios stay below historical averages.

In September 2026, Capesize earnings surged to USD 51,300 daily, driven by Guinea's growing tonne-miles, while market reliance on Pacific ballasters increases voyage times amid slower steaming trends.

US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium imports reach 50 per cent, prompting Canada to respond with similar counter-tariffs, impacting trade dynamics and increasing costs for US manufacturers.

Panama Canal transit prices soar to record highs, reaching USD 1.1 Mn amid declining water levels and draft restrictions, threatening cargo capacity and affecting US Gulf grain exports and coal flows to Asia.

Strait of Hormuz dry bulk transits in June 2026 show a 34 per cent decline for West-to-East routes and 26 per cent for East-to-West, highlighting persistent security concerns despite a June US-Iran agreement.

Rising fuel and fertilizer costs from Iran tensions and drought conditions are straining US agriculture, with diesel prices up 72 per cent and urea fertilizer by 55 per cent, leading to increased farm bankruptcies by over 40 per cent in 2025.

Capesize earnings have surged 96 per cent year-on-year, surpassing USD 40,000 daily amid rising iron ore and bauxite shipments, while geopolitical tensions affect energy demand patterns, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the sector.

Panama Canal congestion continues to escalate due to increased LNG traffic and backlog, with northbound waiting times surging by 147 per cent month-on-month, significantly affecting dry bulk operations and freight rates.

Iran's steel sector, crucial with 31.8 Mn T production, faces USD 5 Bn to USD 6 Bn losses from attacks, potentially increasing reliance on imports from China amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Southeast Asia is boosting coal-fired power amid LNG shortages, reversing the shift to cleaner fuels and straining coal supply chains in Japan, South Korea, and the region.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would drive bunker and energy prices sharply higher, disrupt shipping and dry bulk supply, tighten fertiliser markets, and increase food prices, with impacts intensifying from three to twelve months.