Global observed oil inventories have decreased by 500 Mn barrels since February 2026, driven by significant drawdowns amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Averaging a withdrawal rate of 2.8 Mn bpd, inventories are projected to decline towards the operational floor early next year, barring no change in circumstance.
In the US, commercial crude inventories remain steady while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped significantly.
In Europe, refined product inventories have also fallen sharply, with diesel prices hitting all-time highs, further tightening supply and potentially impacting future oil demand as market balance remains precarious amid continuing high prices and geopolitical risks.