Iran appears determined to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and has stepped up attacks on commercial vessels. Several tankers have been attacked, prompting Iraq and Oman to halt or restrict terminal operations and deterring Chinese‑flagged vessels from entering the region.
The US has refused to provide naval escorts until the threat level falls, as energy secretary Chris Wright acknowledges the country is “not ready” to protect transiting ships.
Global oil markets are reacting sharply to the disruption. Brent crude has again pushed above USD 100 per barrel as the conflict intensifies, while Goldman Sachs has extended its estimate of severely reduced flows through the strait from 10 to 21 days, expecting only a gradual recovery afterward.
Beyond the Gulf, regional and global responses highlight rising economic and security risks. Iranian officials continue inflammatory rhetoric, while intelligence assessments suggest the regime remains stable. The Houthis and other groups are reportedly prepared to threaten the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, raising the possibility of a second chokepoint disruption.
Meanwhile, Asian economies are taking protective measures, such as ramping up nuclear power, imposing refined product price caps, and drawing on vast fuel reserves, to mitigate fuel‑price pressures and maintain energy security.