The Middle East war escalated again this week. The US is sending a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, plus thousands more troops, suggesting that Washington expects no swift end to the war. Brent rose 4.4 per cent to USD 102.31 per barrel and WTI jumped 2.7 per cent to USD 92.87 per barrel. Houthi rebels struck Aramco sites in Saudi Arabia, while 11 ships, ten of them tankers, have been hit by Iranian fire since 29 September.
Prices eased after provisional data showed Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of September's last seven days, at between 19.5 and 22.5 Mn barrels daily. However, Aramco's Amin Nasser warned the supply cushion remains "scarily thin", and Iran insists the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the US accepts its re-opening plan.
OPEC+ held November targets steady after completing the rollback of its 1.65 Mn bpd cut. A capacity review will guide future quotas, with changes unlikely before 2027. Demand forecasts are weakening; The IEA expects a 2.5 Mn bpd fall in 2026 and a 2.6 Mn bpd rebound in 2027, but ConocoPhillips' Ryan Lance suggested full recovery may take until 2028 or 2029.
Russia extended its diesel export ban to 31 October, but the G7 agreed to an IEA-coordinated release of 100 Mn barrels of crude and diesel as prices hit records, and Trump dropped support for a US diesel export ban.