Middle East supply disruptions are intensifying. A record 12 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between 5 October and 11 October, at least two VLCCs hit naval mines over the weekend, and transits are about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels. Houthi strikes on Aramco’s headquarters and threats to Yanbu heighten concern, while Egypt, Turkey, and the UK move towards supporting Saudi Arabia. Brent futures reached USD 111.75 per barrel, the highest since May.
On supply, the US offered up to 17 Mn barrels in an SPR exchange as the IEA accelerated releases, though US SPR stocks are at their lowest since 1982. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast to a 2.6 Mn bpd decline, and the market remains in deficit. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue attacking energy infrastructure, with a St. Petersburg refinery hit on Sunday.