Oil prices tumbled after President Trump signalled that renewed strikes on Iran were unlikely, declaring the war “effectively over”. Brent suffered its largest weekly loss since April 2020, touching USD 89.66, its lowest since August, and has fallen 23 per cent in November. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue, but investors are betting on continued peace on land.
On supply, OPEC’s October output recovered to 22.87 Mn bpd, roughly 90 per cent of pre-war levels, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Iranian production fell to a record-low 1.9 Mn bpd. On demand, China cut oil consumption by 4 per cent last quarter and transport usage by 9 per cent, saving USD 9.1 Bn on imports. Downstream, Aliko Dangote launched a USD 2.5 Bn storage and pipeline project in Namibia’s Walvis Bay, furthering African fuel independence.