Geopolitical Review October 2026

October witnessed significant political shifts, notably Serbia's presidential elections where the grassroots Student List ousted Alexandar Vučić garnering 52.7 per cent of votes. This may facilitate a return to EU accession discussions. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Aramco warned of severe implications of the Iran war on oil supplies, with a reported loss of 3 Bn barrels since February and potential prices soaring to USD 200 per barrel amid ongoing tensions. In addition, the EU plans to implement strict quotas on Chinese hybrid vehicle imports to address its EUR 1 Bn daily trade deficit, with wider implications for EU-China relations and potential trade disputes as Beijing's market struggles persist.